According to the latest update from Xeneta, in the four weeks leading up to Chinese New Year, announced sailings before Jan. 6 from Asia to the U.S. West Coast are more than six times higher than in the weeks leading up to the holiday in 2019.

“This number could increase as we approach the Chinese New Year (CNY), which is celebrated on January 22. Carriers have already announced that they will whitewash 220,489 TEUs, up from the 29,796 TEUs that will be whitewashed in the four weeks leading up to CNY. in 2019."

It is normal for the CNY to have a few blank sailings as shippers stock up for the holidays. "Carriers are limiting their supply in the coming weeks to match the drop in Chinese production and subsequent exports.

"The high number of blank sailings ahead of this year's holiday shows how low demand is and little support for carriers' hopes for the rest of the year. During the week of the holiday, blank sailings were announced from Asia to the west coast of the US stands at 57,970 TEU. This is a significant increase from the 6,800 TEU blanched in 2019. However, there is still a chance that the number will go even higher this year.”

Despite the large increases from 2019 levels, empty capacity in 2023 has almost halved compared to weeks around CNY in 2022. Last year, carriers had to empty much of the planned capacity due to trade delays. "In some cases, there were more than a week of delays on return flights, making it impossible for ships to get back in time for their next scheduled departure."

The announced blank sailings for the four weeks after CNY are 68,000 TEUs lower than in 2019. With plenty of time for carriers to remove more capacity, this year's total will most likely exceed 2019's number, the update said.

"It's the same story for other major shipping routes from the Far East. To Northern Europe, blank sailings in the four weeks leading up to CNY are 715 percent higher than in 2019, currently at 226,000 TEUs, while those from the Far East to the US East Coast are increased by 340 percent to 140,000 TEUs."

In 2019, there were no blank sailings in the four weeks to CNY from the Far East to the Mediterranean, while there are 59,600 TEUs this year, Xeneta said in his update.