According to the latest update from Sea-Intelligence, the market share of smaller airlines is about to fall sharply by the end of 2022.

“Much of this additional niche carrier capacity comes from exceptionally expensive small and inefficient vessel charters, which in turn have been fully fueled by the exceptionally high spot rates. As these have fallen rapidly in recent months, many of these small-vessel services have will rapidly approach the point where they become loss-making, requiring them to be quickly closed and withdrawn from the market."

The analysis, Sea-Intelligence says, only covers the airlines on the Transpacific that are not members of the alliances "i.e. this analysis does not cover the operating airlines within 2M, Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance."

Small vessel services were never expected to remain in the market after the increased spot price period, the report added.

The average weekly capacity offered from the Far East to the US West Coast, from September 26 to October 223, was 237,000 TEU, a decrease of more than 23 percent from the same period in 2021. This is equivalent to removing nine sailings of 8,000 TEU per week, says Xeneta in the latest update.

The decrease in capacity from 2019 comes despite a 14 percent increase in container volumes in the first eight months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2019. Coast, lower than the 880,000 TEU moved in August. However, demand in August this year is lower than in 2020 and 2021."