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War between Israel and Iran: Prepare for increased war risk premiums and freight rates

Tuesday 16th Apr 2024    1
War between Israel and Iran: Prepare for increased war risk premiums and freight rates
 

In a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Iran's seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries container ship has reverberated throughout the maritime industry, with concerns rising over shipping rates.

On April 13, 2024, Iran launched Drone and missile attacks against Israel in what is seen as a response to a suspected Israeli air strike against an Iranian consulate in Syria. The seizure has raised concerns about the security of key trade routes and the stability of regional centers such as Jebel Ali.

This latest development comes on the heels of Iran's seizure of an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz. This further intensifies concerns about the security of vital trade routes and the stability of regional hubs such as Jebel Ali.

“Regardless of the immediate outcomes, we expect further uncertainty in shipping markets. This comes at a time when tensions have already been rising since the late November, especially in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, said: “The Strait of Hormuz is now emerging as a new focal point, with important implications for Dubai, specifically for Jebel Ali, a major transshipment hub. In the region."

As the situation evolves, stakeholders are closely monitoring developments and preparing for potential impacts on global trade and maritime markets. However, the situation remains volatile and potential changes depend on Israel's response.

“In December we already highlighted vulnerabilities in key sea routes, such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Emphasizing the potential repercussions on global trade and shipping networks if the disruption extends, for example, to the Strait of Hormuz. Roelofs noted that these concerns have exploded with recent events.

He also stated that the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, along with its role as a major transit point for maritime traffic, underscores the importance of this recent rise. Furthermore, the impacts extend to major shipping hubs such as Jebel Ali in Dubai, amplifying the potential impact on regional trade and shipping operations.

Roelofs also warned that war risk premiums would increase, causing greater volatility in maritime transport. . Markets. “We expect freight rates to rise in response to increased tension and uncertainty. Furthermore, while there is the potential for diversions across the region, which could impact hubs such as Jebel Ali, we believe this is unlikely given the hub’s importance to freight networks.” Global.

Recent incidents, including Iranian ship seizures in the past, highlight the geopolitical complexities of the region. The company said this latest escalation, in response to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, further underscores The fragility of regional stability and its potential impact on the global economy.

“As tensions continue to escalate. The question of what comes next looms large. He added, "The potential spread of the conflict from the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about the broader regional and global ramifications of this local conflict."

Known as one of the most strategically important bottlenecks. An important point in the world, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, making it vital to global energy security. Any disruption in the region could have immediate impacts on global oil markets, affecting oil prices, shipping routes and energy security around the world.

 
 
 
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